Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise

I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.

Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.