I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.

We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four out of five doctors agree that reducing cholesterol reduces your risk of a heart attack, Gallup is like the fifth doctor.

I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.