In the old days it would have been a relatively simple matter to have checked Hitler's territorial ambitions. All you'd have needed would have been the 1914 combination of Britain, France and Russia. Indeed, if such an alliance had acted decisively to defend Czechoslovakia in 1938, Hitler might even have been overthrown by his own military. But it was not to be.

No civilization, no matter how mighty it may appear to itself, is indestructible.

The West may collapse very suddenly. Complex civilizations do that, because they operate, most of the time, on the edge of chaos.

If young men have jobs - or the prospects of jobs - they are less likely to take up arms, they are less likely to join the resistance.

It’s our generation that is witnessing the end of Western predominance. The average American used to be more than 20 times richer than the average Chinese. Now it’s just five times, and soon it will be 2.5 times.

I think that it is important to be gregarious, and that friendships are not just a leisure pursuit, that they are an integral part of what it is to be human, and one does better work if one has a circle of friends that is active.

When bond prices fall, interest rates soar, with painful consequences for all borrowers.