So the world is much more correlated than we give credit to. And so we see more of what Nassim Taleb calls "black swan events" - rare events happen more often than they should because the world is more correlated.
Richard ThalerPeople exaggerate their own skills. they are optimistic about their prospects and overconfident about their guesses, including which managers to pick.
Richard ThalerThe assumption that everybody will figure out how much they have to save and then will just implement that plan is obviously preposterous.
Richard Thaler