Surprise comes from defying expectations.
I think that the economics of book publishing favor hits with long book runs. You make all your money on the last bunch of books, not the first.
Figure out the people part and the technology gets a whole lot simpler.
While you may have made money doing something a certain way yesterday, there's no reason to believe you'll succeed at it tomorrow.
'How was your day?' is a question that matters a lot more than it seems.
Faith in yourself, in your friends, in your colleagues and most of all, faith in your ability to impact our future is the best strategy I know.