Expectation is a statistical fiction, like having 2.5 children.

The engine driving the Kelly system is the "law of large numbers." In a 1713 treatise on probability, Swiss mathematician Jakob Bernoulli propounded a law that has been misunderstood by gamblers (and investors) ever since.

Kelly was aware that there is one type of favorable bet available to everyone; the stock market.

Expectation is a statistical fiction, like having 2.5 children.

At a bare minimum, understanding entails being able to detect an internal contradiction: a paradox.

In real conversations, we are always trying to outguess each other.

Shannon's most radical insight was that meaning was irrelevant.