The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the [investment management] industry.
Daniel KahnemanTo know whether you can trust a particular intuitive judgment, there are two questions you should ask: Is the environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently regular to enable predictions from the available evidence? The answer is yes for diagnosticians, no for stock pickers. Do the professionals have an adequate opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities? The answer here depends on the professionals' experience and on the quality and speed with which they discover their mistakes.
Daniel KahnemanWe donโt choose between experiences, we choose between memories of experiences. Even when we think about the future, we donโt think of our future normally as experiences. We think of our future as anticipated memories.
Daniel Kahneman