The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.

The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.

The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.

In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence.

When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.

Some achieve a reputation for great successes when in fact all they have done is take chances that reasonable people wouldn't take.

Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.