Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
Daniel KahnemanMost successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
Daniel KahnemanThere are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Daniel KahnemanPeople have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
Daniel Kahneman