It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.

Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.

My impression is that the elimination of memories greatly reduces the value of the experience.

When you are under time pressure for a decision, you need to follow intuition.

The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.

Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.

It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.