There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.

The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.

An executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.

The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.

It's not a case of: 'Read this book and then you'll think differently. I've written this book, and I don't think differently.

People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.

Mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions