If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.

We don’t choose between experiences, we choose between memories of experiences. Even when we think about the future, we don’t think of our future normally as experiences. We think of our future as anticipated memories.

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.

We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.

We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.

Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.