If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
Daniel KahnemanThere is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not-and few of them do-are playing a game of chance.
Daniel KahnemanExcept for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
Daniel KahnemanOne emphasis of my research has been on the question of how people spend their time. Time is the ultimate finite resource, or course, so the question of how people spend it would seem to be important.
Daniel KahnemanThe extra daily social time of 1.7 hours in weekends raises average happiness by about 2%.
Daniel KahnemanUnfortunately, skill in evaluating the business prospects of a firm is not sufficient for successful stock trading, where the key question is whether the information about the firm is already incorporated in the price of the stock. Traders apparently lackthe skill to answer this crucial question, but they appear to be ignorant of their ignorance.
Daniel Kahneman