The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
Daniel KahnemanWhen people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
Daniel KahnemanPoverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
Daniel KahnemanIt doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
Daniel KahnemanFinally, the illusions of validity and skill are supported by a powerful professional culture. We know that people can maintain an unshakeable faith in any proposition, however absurd, when they are sustained by a community of like-minded believers. Given the professional culture of the financial community, it is not surprising that large numbers of individuals in that world believe themselves to be among the chosen few who can do what they believe others cannot.
Daniel Kahneman