Every night for the next week, set aside ten minutes before you go to sleep. Write down three things that went well today and why they went well...Writing about why the positive events in your life happened may seem awkward at first, but please stick with it for one week. It will get easier. The odds are that you will be less depressed, happier, and addicted to this exercise six months from now.

Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.

Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.

Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.

I would be wary of experts' intuition, except when they deal with something that they have dealt with a lot in the past.

We deeply want to be led by people who know what they're doing and who don't have to think about it too much.

In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence.