The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.

There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

The conclusion is straightforward : self-control requires attention and effort.

Lucky risk takers use hindsight to reinforce their feeling that their gut is very wise. Hindsight also reinforces others' trust in that individual's gut.

I would be wary of experts' intuition, except when they deal with something that they have dealt with a lot in the past.

There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.

That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.