An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.

I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.

We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.

In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence.

People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.