My point taken further is that True and False (hence what we call "belief") play a poor, secondary role in human decisions; it is the payoff from the True and the False that dominates-and it is almost always asymmetric, with one consequence much bigger than the other, i.e., harboring positive and negative asymmetries (fragile or antifragile). Let me explain.
Nassim Nicholas Talebtrue humility is when you can surprise yourself more than others; the rest is either shyness or good marketing
Nassim Nicholas TalebIf you have more than one reason to do something (choose a doctor or veterinarian, hire a gardener or an employee, marry a person, go on a trip), just donโt do it. It does not mean that one reason is better than two, just that by invoking more than one reason you are trying to convince yourself to do something. Obvious decisions (robust to error) require no more than a single reason.
Nassim Nicholas TalebBanking is a very treacherous business because you don't realize it is risky until it is too late. It is like calm waters that deliver huge storms.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb