If you let markets - in general, my belief is that if you let markets give you information, they'll give you the information rather than artificially prop up everything.

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.

My point taken further is that True and False (hence what we call "belief") play a poor, secondary role in human decisions; it is the payoff from the True and the False that dominates-and it is almost always asymmetric, with one consequence much bigger than the other, i.e., harboring positive and negative asymmetries (fragile or antifragile). Let me explain.

Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.

Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.

My best definition of a nerd: someone who asks you to explain an aphorism

I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.