I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have.

In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.

I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.

If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.