People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.

Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.

First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.

Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.