People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

I have the same friends and the same bad habits.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.

Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.

The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.