When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.

A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.