We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four out of five doctors agree that reducing cholesterol reduces your risk of a heart attack, Gallup is like the fifth doctor.