A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.
In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.