Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
Nate SilverPlenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.
Nate SilverRemember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
Nate SilverAlmost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver