Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

People gravitate toward information that implies a happier outlook for them.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.