People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
Nate SilverWhen you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there.
Nate Silver