Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.

Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.