Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.

I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.

Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.

One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.