Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

You don't want to treat any one person as oracular.

To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'

One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.

A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.

Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.