We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.

I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being.

Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.