In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'