I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.

Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.

People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.

People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

Voters' memories will fade some.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

I think punditry serves no purpose.