We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.

In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.