We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise

I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.