We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

I have to think about how to not spread myself too thin. It's a really great problem to have.

Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

You don't want to treat any one person as oracular.

We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.

The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.