The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the [investment management] industry.
Daniel KahnemanThere's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
Daniel KahnemanNobody would say, 'I'm voting for this guy because he's got the stronger chin,' but that, in fact, is partly what happens.
Daniel KahnemanI would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
Daniel KahnemanYou're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you; you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
Daniel KahnemanYou know, the standard state for people is 'mildly pleasant.' Negative emotions are quite rare, and extremely positive emotions are rare. But people are mildly pleased most of the time, they're mildly tired a lot of the time, and they wish they were somewhere else a substantial part of the time - but mostly they're mildly pleased.
Daniel Kahneman