We were required to predict a soldier's performance in officer training and in combat, but we did so by evaluating his behavior over one hour in an artificial situation. This was a perfect instance of a general rule that I call WYSIATI, "What you see is all there is." We had made up a story from the little we knew but had no way to allow for what we did not know about the individual's future, which was almost everything that would actually matter. When you know as little as we did, you should not make extreme predictions like "He will be a star."
Daniel KahnemanLucky risk takers use hindsight to reinforce their feeling that their gut is very wise. Hindsight also reinforces others' trust in that individual's gut.
Daniel KahnemanOur comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.
Daniel KahnemanThe extra daily social time of 1.7 hours in weekends raises average happiness by about 2%.
Daniel Kahneman