The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.

When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.

There is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not-and few of them do-are playing a game of chance.

There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.

It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.

We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

Nothing in life is quite as important as you think it is while you're thinking about it.