The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.

I would be wary of experts' intuition, except when they deal with something that they have dealt with a lot in the past.

You should not take your intuitions at face value.

We were required to predict a soldier's performance in officer training and in combat, but we did so by evaluating his behavior over one hour in an artificial situation. This was a perfect instance of a general rule that I call WYSIATI, "What you see is all there is." We had made up a story from the little we knew but had no way to allow for what we did not know about the individual's future, which was almost everything that would actually matter. When you know as little as we did, you should not make extreme predictions like "He will be a star."

Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.

People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.

The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.