We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

Many people will admit that they made a mistake [putting money in dot-coms or telecoms at their peak] But that doesn’t mean that they’ve changed their mind about anything in particular. It doesn’t mean that they are now able to avoid that mistake.

The idea that you can ask one question and it makes the point - well, that wasn't how psychology was done at the time.

If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.

The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.

Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.

Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.