We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

you know you have made a theoretical advance when you can no longer reconstruct why you failed for so long to see the obvious.

In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.

It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.

To better avoid errors, you should talk to people who disagree with you and you should talk to people who are not in the same emotional situation you are.

Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.

The brains of humans contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news.