We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

You should not take your intuitions at face value.

There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.

Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.

By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.

Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.

Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.