Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
Daniel KahnemanWe don't see very far in the future, we are very focused on one idea at a time, one problem at a time, and all these are incompatible with rationality as economic theory assumes it.
Daniel KahnemanWe are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.
Daniel Kahneman