Unfortunately, skill in evaluating the business prospects of a firm is not sufficient for successful stock trading, where the key question is whether the information about the firm is already incorporated in the price of the stock. Traders apparently lackthe skill to answer this crucial question, but they appear to be ignorant of their ignorance.
Daniel KahnemanIt's a wonderful thing to be optimistic. It keeps you healthy and it keeps you resilient.
Daniel KahnemanAn executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.
Daniel Kahneman