If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
Daniel KahnemanWhen action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
Daniel KahnemanFinally, the illusions of validity and skill are supported by a powerful professional culture. We know that people can maintain an unshakeable faith in any proposition, however absurd, when they are sustained by a community of like-minded believers. Given the professional culture of the financial community, it is not surprising that large numbers of individuals in that world believe themselves to be among the chosen few who can do what they believe others cannot.
Daniel KahnemanHuman beings cannot comprehend very large or very small numbers. It would be useful for us to acknowledge that fact.
Daniel Kahneman