Mental effort, I would argue, is relatively rare. Most of the time we coast.

Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.

Some achieve a reputation for great successes when in fact all they have done is take chances that reasonable people wouldn't take.

Ten minutes of a smartphone in front of your nose is about the equivalent of an hour long walk in bright daylight. Imagine going for an hour long walk in bright daylight and then thinking, "Now I'll get some sleep." It ain't going to happen.

The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.

If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.

It's a wonderful thing to be optimistic. It keeps you healthy and it keeps you resilient.