You should not take your intuitions at face value.

It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.

Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.

If you care about being thought credible and intelligent, do not use complex language where simpler language will do.

In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.

Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.

You know, the standard state for people is 'mildly pleasant.' Negative emotions are quite rare, and extremely positive emotions are rare. But people are mildly pleased most of the time, they're mildly tired a lot of the time, and they wish they were somewhere else a substantial part of the time - but mostly they're mildly pleased.