That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

Finally, the illusions of validity and skill are supported by a powerful professional culture. We know that people can maintain an unshakeable faith in any proposition, however absurd, when they are sustained by a community of like-minded believers. Given the professional culture of the financial community, it is not surprising that large numbers of individuals in that world believe themselves to be among the chosen few who can do what they believe others cannot.

That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.

Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.

So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.

When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.