That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

Nothing in life is quite as important as you think it is while you're thinking about it.

People who face a difficult question often answer an easier one instead, without realizing it.

The idea that you can ask one question and it makes the point - well, that wasn't how psychology was done at the time.

People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.

Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.

The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.