Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.

We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

Nobody would say, 'I'm voting for this guy because he's got the stronger chin,' but that, in fact, is partly what happens.

Organizations may be better able to tame optimism than individuals are.

Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.

An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

Banks are run by executives, and executives protect themselves, and that does not always mean that banks are going to behave rationally.