We were required to predict a soldier's performance in officer training and in combat, but we did so by evaluating his behavior over one hour in an artificial situation. This was a perfect instance of a general rule that I call WYSIATI, "What you see is all there is." We had made up a story from the little we knew but had no way to allow for what we did not know about the individual's future, which was almost everything that would actually matter. When you know as little as we did, you should not make extreme predictions like "He will be a star."

Organizations may be better able to tame optimism than individuals are.

The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.

Mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions

You should not take your intuitions at face value.

The brains of humans contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news.

Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.