Mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions

That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

One of the problems with expertise is that people have it in some domains and not in others.

People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.

Clearly, the decision-making that we rely on in society is fallible. It's highly fallible, and we should know that.

Organizations may be better able to tame optimism than individuals are.