I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.

The experiencing self lives its life continuously. It has moments of experience, one after the other.

Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.

We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.

When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.

Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.