There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Daniel KahnemanIt's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
Daniel KahnemanIf people are failing, they look inept. If people are succeeding, they look strong and good and competent. That's the 'halo effect.' Your first impression of a thing sets up your subsequent beliefs. If the company looks inept to you, you may assume everything else they do is inept.
Daniel Kahneman