The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
Daniel KahnemanThe illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
Daniel KahnemanThere's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
Daniel Kahneman