However, optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers. One of the lessons of the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession is that there are periods in which competition, among experts and among organizations, creates powerful forces that favor a collective blindness to risk and uncertainty.

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.

Mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions

The average investor's return is significantly lower than market indices due primarily to market timing.

There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.

I enjoy being active, but I look forward to the day when I can retire to the Internet.