If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
Nate SilverAlmost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.
Nate Silver