If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.

I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.

When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen

I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.

Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.