Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.

Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.

The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'

Voters' memories will fade some.

I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.