Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.

In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.

People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.

I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.