If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.
There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.
In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.
You get steely nerves playing poker.