Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.
In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.
A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.
The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.